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Cockburn chat Andrew Cockburn: He's a gambler. He rolls the dice at times, takes a cockburn chat big gamble, and seems to sit back and wait to see what fate has decided for him. Let me give you two examples. Inhe suddenly attacked Iran and launched cockvurn invasion of Iran, which had just had its own revolution. He thought Iran was weak.

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It is the Shia and the Kurds who have primarily felt the more severe side of his character. I'm sure he does care what people think of him; he is careful to at least maintain some political support among the key groups, such as people from his own hometown of Tikrit. Having said that, the disasters he has inflicted on the people of Iraq as a whole suggest cockburn chat he does not put their welfare above all else.

Saddam Hussein Andrew Cockburn: If they wanted to get rid of Saddam, they should've done it when they had their best opportunity, which was right after the Gulf War when most of Iraq was in revolt against him. And it was not necessary, I think, for the Allies to have actually invaded Iraq itself -- to have gone all the way to Baghdad. They could simply have aled their support for the rebellion. But instead, they aled that they did not cockburn chat the rebellion.

Once Saddam understood that, that the Americans wanted the rebellion to fail, he was confident enough to crush it in the south at least, and in the north, with his customary lack of mercy. That was the biggest mistake that the Allies made.

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I think the second biggest mistake was to think that they could starve Saddam into submission through the use of U. The notion appears to have been that the people of Iraq would cockburn chat a way out by overthrowing Saddam if they suffered from sanctions, which meant lack of food.

Of course, Saddam himself did not suffer the effects of sanctions, nor did the people on whom he depends xockburn maintain his power, the security services and certain key parts of the military. The sanctions regime has helped Cockburn chat politically by convincing the people of Iraq that the Allies do not care about them. Iraqis think that the Allies want to keep Saddam cockburn chat power.

Those are the two main mistakes. Question from the chat room: Mr. Cockburn, who do you think the Iraqi torch will pass to cockburn chat Saddam passes away?

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Who does he favor to succeed him? I've heard that he may cockburn chat look for it in his son Uday -- given his reputation for being recklessly violent in the past. Cha Cockburn: That is true. The more likely successor from within the family is Saddam's second son, Qusay, who is as brutal as his brother or his cockbuen, but in a less emotional way than his brother. Uday, the first son, is basically a psychopath and not very smart, at least politically, whereas Qusay has the reputation of being as politically astute as his father and has been given more and more responsibility in recent years.

However, it is not clear that even Qusay, should his father die, would be able to command the loyalty of the key elements in the regime in the same way his father has done. We should not forget that Saddam has a certain charisma, which has its own powerful effect in maintaining cockbudn control cockbufn Iraq, so cockburn chat is very hard to predict what would happen should Saddam leave us. Cockburn, do you believe our Iraqi policy is a failure?

Andrew Cockburn: If we believe what we are told, Iraqi policy is, of course, it's a failure. We're told policy is cockburn chat remove Saddam from power; he's still there. Chqt were told policy was to force him to cockburn chat all the facts about his nuclear and chemical and biological weapons, but apparently we're also told that there is much we still do not know about those programs, so that is a failure.

We've been told that policy is to make Iraq more of a peaceful country, not threatening its neighbors.

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Just last week, Uday, the cockburn chat, once again announced that Kuwait belongs to Iraq, so we're cockburn chat doing well there either. We were told that it is our policy not to punish the people of Iraq; with sanctions, we've punished the people of Iraq very severely indeed.

CNN Moderator: How have the Sunni Muslims, who are only 20 percent of the Iraqi population, come to control so much of the Iraqi military and government? Andrew Cockburn: That's a good question. The Sunni have traditionally ruled Iraq, ever since the days when the British controlled the country and appointed a Sunni king under them.

The Shia, unfortunately for them, cockburn chat never been able to unite strongly enough to take political control, even though they are the majority of the population. The Kurds chaat fought on and off for many years for their own independence, but they've always depended on outside help cockburn chat these struggles, and they have always been betrayed by their outside allies.

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It is very difficult once a group that is comparatively cohesive, such as Saddam and his supporters from Tikrit and in the Sunni population at large, once they've got control of power, military and security services, and other state repression, it's hard to overthrow a group like that. The Shia almost did it in and probably would have succeeded, cockburn chat they not been, at least as they see it, betrayed by the United States.

CNN Moderator: In your book, you mention that the Iraqi people "were reed to the inevitability of defeat. Andrew Cockburn: Because they are not stupid; they could see that if you had 28 countries led cocoburn the greatest military power occkburn earth, the United States, poised to attack them, there was not much chance of an Iraqi victory, so they were quite realistic about that.

So, to answer the question, I think he has in mind showing no mercy to his neighbors in the Middle East. I hope he cockburn chat not so crazy as to attempt to use a weapon of mass destruction, for example, in this country or in western Europe. After all, when the United States and, in coxkburn, Europe went to war with him, he did not, as far as we know, attempt to retaliate through terror tactics in the United States or in Europe.

So, I think that his idea of showing no mercy is first and foremost, of course, applied to his own population, whom he has murdered and gassed and otherwise punished with great severity. And then, also, of course, he has inflicted great punishment on his neighbor, Iran.

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Question from the chat room: Does Saddam care anything at all about his own people? Andrew Cockburn: He is a clever politician and he has been careful to retain political support inside Iraq, at least from cockburn chat sections of the population. I should explain, if you didn't know already, that Iraq is basically divided into three separate groups. There are the Kurds in the north, who are a non-Arab people, though they are Muslims; then there are the people in the center who are Sunni Muslims; and in the south, there is the largest group, the Shia Muslims.

His support comes primarily from the Sunni heartland of Iraq; he himself is a Sunni. It is the Shia and the Kurds who have primarily felt the more severe side of his character. I'm sure he does care what people think of him; he is careful to at least maintain some political support among the key groups, such as people from his own hometown of Tikrit. Having said that, the disasters he has inflicted on the people of Iraq as a whole suggest that he does not put their welfare cockburn chat all else.

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Saddam Hussein Andrew Cockburn: If they wanted to get rid of Saddam, they should've done it when they had their best opportunity, which was right after the Gulf War when most of Iraq was in revolt against him. And it was not necessary, I think, for cockburn chat Allies to have actually invaded Iraq itself -- to have gone all the way to Baghdad. They cockburn chat simply have aled their support for the rebellion. But instead, they aled that they did not support the rebellion. Once Saddam understood that, that the Americans wanted the rebellion to fail, he was confident enough to crush it in the south at least, and in the north, with his customary lack of mercy.

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That was the biggest mistake that the Allies made. I think the second biggest mistake was to think that they could starve Saddam into submission through the use of U. The notion appears to have been that the people of Iraq would find a way out by overthrowing Saddam if they suffered from cockburn chat, which meant lack of food. Of course, Saddam himself did not suffer the effects of sanctions, nor did cockburn chat people on whom he depends to maintain his power, the security services and certain key parts of the military.

The sanctions regime has helped Saddam politically by convincing the people of Iraq that the Allies do not care about them.

Iraqis think that the Allies want to cockburn chat Saddam in power. Those are the two main mistakes. Question from the chat room: Mr. Cockburn, who do you think the Iraqi torch will pass to when Vhat passes away? Who does he favor to succeed him? I've heard that he may not look for it in his son Uday -- given his reputation for being recklessly violent in the past.

Andrew Cockburn: That is true. The more likely successor from within the family is Cpckburn second son, Qusay, who is as brutal as his brother or his father, but in a less emotional way than his brother. Uday, the first son, is basically a psychopath and not very smart, at cockburn chat politically, whereas Qusay has the reputation of being as politically astute as his father and has been given more and more responsibility in recent years. However, it is not clear that even Qusay, should his father die, would be able to command the loyalty of the key elements in the regime in the same way his father has done.

We should not forget that Saddam has a certain charisma, which has its own powerful effect in maintaining his control of Iraq, so it is very hard to predict what would happen should Saddam leave us. Cockburn, do you believe our Iraqi policy is a cpckburn Andrew Cockburn: If we believe what we are told, Iraqi policy is, of course, cockbhrn a failure. We're told policy is to remove Saddam from power; he's still there. We were told policy was to force him to admit all the facts about his nuclear and chemical and biological weapons, but apparently we're also told that there is much we still do not know about those programs, so that cokcburn a failure.

We've been told that policy is to make Iraq more of a peaceful country, not threatening its neighbors. Just last week, Uday, the son, once cockbhrn announced that Kuwait belongs to Iraq, so we're not doing well there cockbutn.

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